‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Constricts India's LPG Availability.

The shockwaves of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are switching to solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their gas stocks have dwindled with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the government maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and officials say cylinders are being redirected to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by rumors. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.